Monday, November 10, 2008

The next steps of history...


Kieron

The fireworks have fizzled out, the balloons have withered or popped and the champagne has gone flat. And yet, the party atmosphere looks set to continue a little longer.

Obama has been scrutinised, every second of every day since that historic victory and the media is keen to keep the fever running high. Unsurprisingly, this has generated a kind of excitement in politics not seen in recent generations, and the bug has spread amongst the population.

Even those who didn't vote for Obama would admit that something has changed, they might not see it as a positive one but it is change nonetheless. The upshot is that people are interested in everything he does; some waiting to see miracles happen, others to witness the beginning of the end.

So, I guess it makes sense that his first official performance in front of the world's media has led to speculation on everything from his immediate plan to his choice of pet.

Since Tuesday night, I've had numerous conversations with people about what has happened. Everyone has agreed that history has been made, that the world will look differently at America and that this is a good thing. Obama, was right in an interview with Time magazine last December that, "The day I'm inaugurated, not only will the country look at itself differently, but the world will look at America differently."

The immeasurably difficult task of being elected as the first African-American President has been achieved. It's tempting to think that with this monolithic hurdle toppled, Obama will go on to be remembered as an incredible President, regardless of how the next four years transpire.

Unfortunately it's not that simple. The world is not in a good place. Eight years of neo-Conservative foreign policy have damaged US relationships across the globe, the economy continues to implode and the environment is more volatile than ever, offering frequent and prosaic reminders of the immense battle we have to control climate change.

No individual has the power to fix these problems on their own, but some of the people we met on Tuesday are convinced that Obama can. This is a problem.

When the miracles fail to materialise and the cold reality of recession seep in to his first term, the love drunk media and Fox news will be there to question the effectiveness of the Democratic House, Senate and of course the man himself - Fox news particularly so.

Not to mention the fact that those who didn't vote for Obama will feel vindicated and relish the chance to voice their disapproval. No doubt, some blinded by the light of the 'messiah' will be equally mystified by lack of instant gratification and find a dissenting voice. One friend in Chicago said it well the other night; "I see the importance of what has happened. But I'm not sure what'll change."

He has a point. Getting your hopes up has it's drawbacks.

The difference this time is that everybody is aware of what is at stake.

In the crowd in Grant Park there were college students, blue collar workers, white people, black people, Latino people, old, young, men and women. A crowd that reflects America today, and to a certain extent, the world too. We're a global community regardless of what we feel about that fact.

The reaction to what the American electorate decided on Tuesday has been almost universally positive. People across the globe are looking once again to America in a way that has been absent since the Berlin wall fell.

Domestically Obama has a real chance for success.

A combination of Bush-weariness and a captivating election narrative guaranteed a huge turn out, which is estimated at 63%. Obama's electoral college victory is the largest for a Democrat since 1964. And the fact that he won every demographic, except the over 60s, speaks volumes for the future.

He organised a grass-roots army of millions in to the most impressive campaign machine ever. When we asked his supporters across the country what they would do after the elections, most didn't have an answer. They weren't sure what would happen to the Obarmy.

But, one thing is for sure; they're behind this man totally and most seemed ready to answer his call. He plans to increase community service and the Peace Corps. and he has a huge group ready for action.

People like Holley from Birmingham, Alabama, who was a disaffected Republican, tired of and hurt by the Bush regime. After hearing Obama speak twice in her home city, she threw herself behind his campaign. She isn't sure what happens now but is watching with great interest and hope. She's one of the new breed of engaged Americans. Which is impressive, considering she's a middle-aged mother of two.

The apathy towards politics, (something we can relate to in the UK,) appears to have been suspended for the time being. So Barry has some breathing room at least.

But if he turns his back on the fundamentals of his domestic policy, (like improving health care and education) then there are plenty of people ready to call him on it. This level of interest can only be good for democracy.

There's things to look forward to for the rest of us as well.

His most pressing domestic test will be the performing the near-miracle of economic revival. The US has been increasingly reliant on the emerging markets of China and the Middle-East to feed it's product and energy hungry lifestyle. The collapse of economic institutions around the world means that the times of exponential increases in national borrowing might be over for the States (and the UK for that matter.) Jobs will be lost, and industry's threatened with permanent closure (watch out GMT and the rest of abysmal US motor industry!)

Unless Obama tackles this problem with the support of Congress and the Senate, he might find himself as lame a duck as Bush; with no money to spend he won't be able to change very much. But his ambitious stimulus package will aim to level-off the downward spiral and avoid a crippling depression. He needs a new 'New Deal' and no doubt he has the memoirs of FDR committed to memory.

Of course a more financially sustainable US brings with it benefits to everybody else; I'm no economist but when the worlds largest economy is ticking along nicely, it usually has a knock-on effect.

Perhaps a more foregone conclusion is improved Foreign relations.

Finally, the ruinous dichotomy of Islamic fundamentalism and imperialistic neo-Conservativism reinforcing one another will no longer exist. Bush and his cronies have been feeding the hate mongers for two terms, in a way that Obama won't. This is bad for terrorist recruitment drives and good for the people of any nation affected by the threat of terrorism or fundamental regimes...which I guess is everyone. Obama has targeted a staged withdrawal from Iraq and a responsible plan to rebuild Afghanistan early on in his administration.

An equally, if not more pressing, issue is climate change. With an intelligent and informed regime in charge of the largest polluter in the world, the threat of global warming no longer seems insurmountable. With the US taking the lead in reducing emissions and creating a competitive renewable energy industry, the whole world, including China and India, will be forced to compete in new markets and will have a new moral obligation to avoid an environmental catastrophe. It's almost certain his economic stimulus package will include massive increased in renewable energy production in the US, which can only benefit everybody.

As a knock on, the burden of foreign oil and dwindling reserves would become less pressing and as a consequence should see an increase in Middle-Eastern security. And it means less reason for hypocritical arms trading and regime support by Western governments.

These are grand notions but were central to Obama getting elected and so it is reasonable to think they will be undertaken over the next four or eight years. The economy is a little out of any government's hands but foreign security and climate change seemed untouchable, only a few months ago, but now some feel like no obstacle is too large.

One Chicagoan told me gleefully; "Hell, we put a man on the moon 40 years ago so energy and terrorism are nothing man." Admittedly he'd been drinking but, the bar has been raised by the mere presence of Barrack Obama.

We won't know what sort of President he'll be until he's finished. What is certain though, is that America and the rest of the world needed Tuesday night.

The potential for improvement is greater today than it was last week; than it's been for a good many years. And that's something special. That's something we can all be hopeful about.